- Global markets face disruption as central banks prepare for critical interest rate decisions amidst economic uncertainty and inflation concerns
- Fed Chair Powell signals openness to two rate cuts in 2025, while Governor Waller predicts tariff-driven inflation will be temporary but warns of potential recession risks
- Smaller tariffs could stabilize inflation expectations, giving the Fed flexibility to adjust monetary policy as economic uncertainty persists
Donald Trump’s tariffs on international trade have shaken up markets all across the world. As economic uncertainty looms central banks—attention is now turning toward the United States Federal Reserve, and what monetary policy the Fed will adhere to in the coming months.
In three weeks the U.S. Central Bank will announce its interest rate decision. The Financial Open Market Committee happening on May 6–7 is seen as the most important during the early period of Trump’s second term.
The President is pressuring the FED chairman Jerome Powell to slash rates at the upcoming meeting. Powell, who oversaw three consecutive interest rate cuts in 2024 is yet to decrease rates during the Trump administration.
With that said, the Chairman does not oppose further interest gashes this year. In a statement released after “Liberation Day” — Powell claimed that he believes two rate cuts are still possible for this calendar year.
The man in charge of the U.S. Central Bank also foresees a period of economic hardship in America. In that same statement, Powell emphasized that the new tariff policy would most likely produce slower economic growth and higher inflation.
Fed Governor Christopher Waller Weighs In
As the U.S. grapples with the economic fallout of Trump’s tariffs, Fed Governor Christopher Waller has provided a candid assessment of the challenges ahead. Waller expects higher inflation to emerge as a direct consequence of the tariff policy, though he remains optimistic about its temporary nature.
In his statement, Waller remarked:
“Yes, I am saying that I expect that elevated inflation would be temporary, and ‘temporary’ is another word for ‘transitory.’ Despite the fact that the last surge of inflation beginning in 2021 lasted longer than I and other policymakers initially expected, my best judgment is that higher inflation from tariffs will be temporary.”
While inflationary pressures may be short-lived, Waller also highlighted a potential silver lining for monetary policy. He suggested that smaller tariffs could lead to anchored inflation expectations, allowing the Fed to adopt a more patient approach. Waller explained:
“Anchored or even lower inflation expectations as the economy slows, combined with the view that smaller tariff effects are temporary, gives the FOMC room to adjust policy as progress on the underlying trend in inflation is revealed in price data.”
Basically, this means that Waller believes that if the White House is able to come to terms with its economic trade partners in the next months — the U.S. could avoid the fallouts of a year-long recession.
