XRP Lawyer Claims 25% Chance of Victory for Ripple in SEC Lawsuit

2:50 pm, Mon, 5 June 23

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  • Ripple’s SEC legal battle expected to conclude by September.
  • XRP lawyer John E. Deaton foresees a 25% chance of Ripple securing a decisive victory.

Prominent XRP lawyer John E. Deaton predicts that Ripple’s legal battle with the SEC will likely end by September, giving Ripple a 25% chance of winning the case outright. During an interview on Good Morning Crypto, Deaton shared his perspective on the ongoing SEC-Ripple dispute. He mentioned that Judge Analisa Torres, known for making significant rulings every four months, is expected to bring the case to a close in the near future.

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The Timeline

According to Deaton, Judge Torres is expected to render a verdict prior to September 30. This anticipation arises from the procedural requirement for district judges to present a comprehensive “six-month list” to Congress, which discloses pending summary judgments exceeding the six-month limit.

Furthermore, Deaton assessed the SEC’s chances of an outright victory to be below 3%, whereas Ripple’s likelihood of securing an outright victory, where early sales are not considered a violation, stands at 25%. When asked about the potential ruling, Deaton offered his opinion:

“I think that XRP itself is going to be deemed not a security. I think that on secondary market sales she’ll comment, that even if she does do a ruling finding Ripple violated the law, that doesn’t apply to secondary market sales.”

A “Splitting Baby” Rule

Furthermore, Deaton suggests a 50% chance of a “splitting the baby” ruling, which would entail a compromise or partial victory for both Ripple and the SEC. Such a decision might involve the rejection or weakening of certain aspects of the SEC’s case while upholding others.

The recent disclosure of the Hinman documents, containing internal SEC communications related to a 2018 speech by former SEC Director William Hinman, introduces the possibility of cryptocurrencies transitioning from securities to commodities.

Deaton also expresses his confidence in the eventual classification of XRP as a non-security, even if Judge Torres rules against Ripple. He supports this belief by highlighting the nature of secondary market sales of XRP.

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