We’re heading to a more chill week on April 20–27, at least when it comes to key economic indicators scheduled for this week. Overall, the week is promising to showcase some inflation readings that could help us determine whether or not the Fed will decrease interest rates in the FOMC meeting in May.
Monday
Today, the Conference Board released the month-over-month data related to the United States Leading Index. This metric, which measures changes in a composite index of economic indicators, serves as a key indicator of how well America’s economy is doing.
The results were far from optimistic for the U.S. The leading index came two basis points below the forecast, at -0.7%. This indicates that economic conditions might be weakening, signaling a potential slowdown in growth.
Tuesday
Tomorrow, the Federal Open Market Committee members Harker and Kashkari will be issuing a public statement—perhaps sharing insight into what to expect from the FOMC meeting scheduled for May 6–7. Also, the President of the European Central Bank, Christine Lagarde, will speak for the first time after last week’s decision to decrease interest rates for the seventh consecutive time in Europe.
Other than that, the most important economic data coming on Tuesday are the U.S. 2-Year Note Auction and the American Petroleum Institute’s weekly crude oil stock report.
Wednesday
Wednesday will provide us with two key readings that will help us understand if the United States’ aggressive foreign trade policy is already affecting companies in the country.
Firstly, the S&P Global will release the U.S. Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), giving us insight into the purchasing power of the manufacturing sector in America. The S&P Global Services PMI for April will be released shortly thereafter, showing the most up-to-date state of the American services sector.
Crude Oil Inventories and new home sales will also be released on Wednesday, providing further insight into consumer demand, market supply trends, and overall economic momentum.
Thursday
Thursday brings three reports that will shape market sentiment going into the weekend.
First, the U.S. Durable Goods Orders MoM will show whether businesses are confident enough to invest in big-ticket items like machinery and vehicles. A rise suggests economic resilience, while a drop may signal caution.
Meanwhile, U.S. Initial Jobless Claims will give us a snapshot of labor market health—are more Americans filing for unemployment, or is hiring holding steady?
Lastly, the U.S. Existing Home Sales report will reflect buyer demand amid shifting interest rates, offering clues on housing market strength.
Friday
Friday’s economic indicators will reveal the state of Retail Sales for March. This data lets us understand the current strength of American consumerism, measuring the change in sales at the retail level.
Finally, the University of Michigan will share its inflation expectations in a mid-term (1-year) and long-term expectations (5-year). This will undoubtedly be one of the most interesting readings of the week. The current forecast is 6.7% inflation for 1-year expectations, and 4.4% for 5-year expectations.
If the actual data comes in drastically different than the forecast, we can assume that Trump’s tariffs may be influencing consumer prices and long-term inflation trends.
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