- Holding 1M BTC would cut US debt in half, says Senator Lummis
- This is based on the best modeling available if held for 20 years
- Bitcoin’s historical returns are notably higher than the S&P 500 and others.
- Bitcoin is down 10.4% since the beginning of 2025, but stocks are notably higher
- However, Bitcoin is highly volatile, which modeling has to consider
Buying and holding 1M BTC would cut US debt in half, says Senator Lummis. She says this is based on the best modeling available if you hold Bitcoin for 20 years. That might make sense, given Bitcoin’s historical returns, which have outperformed the S&P 500 and other equity markets by multiples. Also, in an era of economic and political instability, Bitcoin has shown itself to be a bit more resilient than stocks, though not independently. Bitcoin is down 10.4% since the start of 2025, while the S&P 500 is down 15.3%, and the Nasdaq Composite is down 20.9%.
More on How Bitcoin Could Help With the US National Debt
So, let’s break this idea down further. The US national debt is growing in real-time, already quite large, and in need of a solution — one theory is that Trump’s entire trade war strategy is largely aimed at this. As of now, the US national debt stands at $36.72T, and paying it off becomes a major challenge if we rely solely on traditional instruments like GDP, which in 2023, for example, amounted to $27.72T.
Even if we ignore all current spending and prospective investments — that still wouldn’t be enough to cover it, while the amount realistically available to pay down the debt is many times lower. This is precisely why Senator Lummis points to Bitcoin as a potential solution to this problem, calling it a game changer.
It can also be looked at from the standpoint that Bitcoin shows record returns even compared to indices like the S&P 500 and NASDAQ. In particular, when comparing long-term returns, we can see the following:
Over the last 10 years:
- Bitcoin ~8,600%
- S&P 500 ~176%
- NASDAQ ~230%
Over the last 20 years:
- Bitcoin ~290,000,000% (since 2010)
- S&P 500 ~536%
- NASDAQ ~1,100%
At the same time, we can also observe another factor — despite Bitcoin’s obvious volatility, which cannot be ignored — since the beginning of 2025, it has been performing more steadily than the top indices. Specifically:
- Bitcoin –10.4%
- S&P 500 –15.3%
- NASDAQ –20.9%
Of course, it’s also important to note that Bitcoin’s return potential is decreasing directly due to technical features — for example, acquiring 1 million BTC now would no longer yield those same gigantic percentage gains.
Even so, the trajectory of that diminishing return still appears more optimistic than traditional indices and could shift notably if we see Bitcoin at $200K–$300K or higher. But let’s assume the diminishing trend continues:
- Since 2009 (≈ $0.003) +290,000,000%
- Since 2010 (≈ $0.06) +140,000,000%
- Since 2013 (≈ $100): ~+87,000%
- Since 2017 (≈ $1,000) ~+8,600%
- Since 2020 (≈ $7,000) ~+1,140%
- Since early 2023 (≈ $16,500) ~+430% (at ~$87,000)
Returning to Senator Lummis’ proposal – for 200,000 BTC purchased today at around ~$85,000 to be able to cover the US national debt in 20 years, they would need to appreciate at an average rate of approximately 31.6% annually. However, one must also factor in volatility, and we’ve seen events that clearly remind us of that:
- –80% in 2011
- –85% in 2014
- –84% in 2018
- –77% in 2022
In addition to volatility adjustments, there are unpredictable factors such as Trump and broader macroeconomic events, as well as the internal mechanics of decreasing returns.
Conclusion
Thus, while Senator Lummis’ proposal is not without merit, it requires several clarifications and a much broader mathematical model to support such confidence. Especially considering the current scale of economic and political uncertainty, which is directly affecting global trade and financial markets.
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