We’re heading to another eventful week in crypto and finance. Throughout the next seven days, we’ll get to take a look at several key financial metrics that will not only give us a better sense of inflation in the U.S. and abroad but also help us gauge how aggressive central banks are likely to be in the months ahead.
Monday – British GDP
Different from the final revision of the U.S. GDP in the first quarter, which showed an aggressive retraction in economic growth, the U.K. economy actually posted a solid expansion. Finalized data released Monday confirmed that British GDP grew by 0.7% in Q1 2025, matching earlier estimates and marking the strongest quarterly growth in a year.
Meanwhile, in the U.S., the Chicago Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) — a metric that determines the economic strength of the Chicago region — came out with another pessimistic news for the States. The June reading for the Chicago PMI dropped slightly to 40.4, down from 40.5 in May and well below market expectations of 42.7, signaling that the Chicago manufacturing region has been contracting for the past 3 months.
Tuesday – Europe CPI, Powell Speaks
By early morning, Eurostat will reveal the latest print for the European CPI. Consumer prices have been slowly on the decline in Europe since January. Tomorrow is expected to show a continued cooling trend, following May’s annual inflation rate of 1.9%, down from 2.2% in April.
This upcoming reading will be particularly significant because a steady CPI will signal that inflation may be stabilizing near the European Central Bank’s 2% target, potentially limiting the ECB’s room to cut rates further this year. So far, European rates have come down by almost 1% in 2025, 2.00% for the deposit facility, 2.15% for the main refinancing operations, and 2.40% for the marginal lending facility.
Over in the U.S., Fed Chair Jerome Powell will also again address the public and answer questions during a policy panel discussion scheduled for 9:30 a.m. ET on Tuesday. His remarks come amid growing speculation about the Fed’s next move, especially after holding rates steady at 4.25%–4.50% in June.
Wednesday – U.S. Labor Market, European Unemployment
U.S. Jobs and European Labor Market Midweek brings a pair of labor market updates that, while not expected to shake markets, still offer useful context for the broader economic picture.
In the U.S., the ADP Nonfarm Employment Change for June will offer a preview of how private-sector hiring is trending ahead of Friday’s official payrolls. After May’s disappointing print, anything north of 100,000 could ease recession chatter.
Meanwhile, the eurozone unemployment rate is also due. It’s been holding steady at 6.2% for months, and consensus expects more of the same.
Thursday — Inflation Pressures and Import Tensions
U.S. Wages, Services, and Jobs Thursday will bring a dense cluster of U.S. data that could shape expectations for the Fed’s next move.
First up, the Average Hourly Earnings report for June will offer a fresh look at wage pressures. After a 0.4% monthly gain in May, tomorrow’s data will either reinforce a growth trend in wages or signal that momentum is cooling.
Next, the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI will shed light on the health of the U.S. services sector. May’s reading came in at 49.9, signaling contraction for the first time in nearly a year. A print above 50 could ease recession fears.
The same for the ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices index, which jumped to 68.7 in May, the highest since late 2022. If price pressures remain, it could reinforce that inflationary pressure is on the rise in America.
We’ll also get to see one of the most resilient sectors in the Trump administration so far. Tomorrow, we’ll get the latest U.S. unemployment rate, which has held steady at 4.2% for the past two months.
Finally, the Bureau of Economic Analysis will give us important information regarding imported and exported goods entering and leaving the United States, offering a snapshot of how global trade flows are holding up after the U.S. hit everyone with tariffs.
The report comes just days before the July 9 deadline, when a temporary pause on President Trump’s sweeping tariff hikes is set to expire.
Friday is July 4th, a.k.a. Independence Day, which means U.S. financial markets will be closed due to the holiday. That includes the NYSE, NASDAQ, bond markets, and most federal offices.
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