Solana’s bearish trend just flipped bullish after breaking above a multi-month descending trendline. While the move erased weeks of downward pressure, low volume, and macro factors still cloud the breakout’s strength.
While newfound momentum could lead $SOL back to near $160.00 levels, buyer exhaustion and macro factors could put a halt to a long-lasting rally.
Current Market Snapshot
Solana is currently valued at $151.77, trading on a 2.14% increase over the last 24 hours. Moreover, the asset is also on a net positive 3.44% growth in the week and has reached ‘breakeven’ levels on a monthly timeframe.
Trading volume averages around $3.4 billion to $4 billion per day, signaling that while no sudden volume spikes have occurred, investor interest is cautiously ranging alongside price.
Macro Risks
Macro risks are admittedly a bit better than a couple of weeks ago, when we were on the verge of a military conflict in the Middle East. However, the global macro landscape remains murky. Tariff negotiations between the U.S. and other trade partners continue to be a thing, after President Trump postponed its deadline by another month.
At the end of July, the Federal Reserve will decide whether interest rates will remain at the current 4.25% – 4.50% level, or finally go down.
For a more tangible sense of what to expect from the U.S. economy, tomorrow the 10-year Note Auction comes out. A higher demand for long-term debt signals that investors could be pricing lower rates. Next week, one of the Fed’s favorite inflation metrics — the Consumer Price Index — will provide crucial insight into whether disinflation is taking hold or if sticky price pressures remain.
Solana Whales Jumping Ship?
Data from Telegaon reveals that Solana whales may be rotating out of their positions. A position of 240,000 SOL (~35.2 million) was recently unstaked and transferred to Binance today, signaling that this investor may be looking to swap or even withdraw funds.
The total whale volume is down 8.5% in the last 24 hours, while whale transactions grew by 25%. While arguably fickle data to rely on, this could suggest a broader shift in positioning rather than a full-scale exit.
Price Structure + Technical Breakdown
Solana broke above its multi-month descending trendline on June 28, eventually going as high as $164.00 before correction. This breakout, highlighted on the chart, marks a technical shift in market structure, potentially hinting at a reversal.
The $145.00 zone continues to act as a key demand level, as we’ve seen multiple successful retests since July 1st. Meanwhile, the immediate resistance lies at $153–$155, aligning with the 50-day EMA and the upper boundary of the prior consolidation range.
While the RSI sits at 51, indicating neither bullish nor bearish strength, the MACD line is rising and currently sits above the signal line, which typically hints at improving momentum. However, the histogram remains in negative territory, meaning bearish pressure hasn’t fully dissipated.
Despite the breakout, volume remains relatively muted. While buyers have been able to defend the $145.00 zone so far, for the consolidation of a new upward trend would we would have to see a significant spike in volume.
Solana Technical Highlights
- Breakout date: June 28 — above multi-month descending trendline
- Support zone: $145.00 — multiple successful retests since July 1
- Resistance zone: $153–$155 — aligns with 50-day EMA and prior range top
- RSI: Neutral at 51 — no clear momentum bias
- MACD: Line above signal, but histogram still negative — early signs of bullish momentum, but nothing substantial
- Volume: Still muted — no breakout confirmation yet
- Structure: Shift from lower highs to potential reversal — but needs follow-through
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