HBAR up 20%, rise to $0.154 after drop to $0.129 – should we expect a full recovery or a correction after the sharp impulse? HBAR had been declining from a high of $0.183, accompanied by several rebounds since June 10. But now we’re seeing potential signs of recovery – will it be strong enough to reclaim the highs? The price is still holding confidently above all EMAs, and RSI has exited the overbought zone without a sharp breakdown. Let’s take a closer look.
Overall HBAR Price Structure
HBAR showed an extremely sharp upward impulse from the low of $0.12911 to the local high of $0.15477. The growth was accompanied by a breakout above all key EMAs and a sharp shift in structure toward HH/HL, giving signs of recovery. However, we are now seeing some consolidation in the narrow range of $0.1510–0.1547 after reaching the extreme. Still, the correction remains shallow so far – none of the lower Fibonacci or EMA levels have been tested.
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HBAR EMA and RSI
- EMA-20 ($0.148). Broken from below during the impulse, the slope is clearly upward. A stable holding above EMA-20 will confirm short-term bullish sentiment. A breakdown may be the first signal of the local weakening of the impulse.
- EMA-50 ($0.145). The price also consolidated noticeably above it. The slope is also clearly upward. Holding the price above may confirm the sustainability of the upward movement in the mid-term zone. A breakdown will lead to a violation of the short-term HH/HL structure.
- EMA-100 ($0.143). After being broken upward during the impulse, EMA-100 stopped acting as dynamic resistance and now serves as a support zone in case of a pullback. Its sustained breakout reinforced the directional shift in favor of buyers. Losing this level will strengthen reversal signals and increase the risk of exiting the current upward structure.
- EMA-200 ($0.1463). Was broken at one point, but in the current consolidation, the price is near this level. The slope remains neutral, indicating the weakness of the long-term trend and the importance of this holding zone. Consecutive closes below EMA-200 will cancel the bullish transition on the higher timeframe.
RSI
RSI reached a peak of 71.67 during the impulse but has now dropped to 64.34. That is, it has exited the overbought zone and is showing a gradual decline without a sharp collapse. Such a decline while holding above 60 may indicate a soft cooldown without a phase change. At the same time, a renewed RSI rise above 70 in the coming hours may potentially create conditions for overheating and accelerated profit-taking.
HBAR Fibonacci Key Zones
- 0.236 ($0.14873). This is the nearest significant support, especially considering it intersects with EMA-50. This level remains untested so far, which highlights the strength of the impulse and gives the potential for full recovery if volume increases. However, this is exactly where we observe consolidation, which simultaneously increases the probability of a correction if volume decreases.
- 0.382 ($0.14499). Located near EMA-50 and slightly above EMA-100, which makes this zone critical for maintaining the current HH/HL structure. Losing this zone may signal a breakdown of the short-term bullish formation.
- 0.5 ($0.14187). A potential target for a deeper correction. Below – is a possible transition to a full impulse reset phase. But for now, we are far from testing this zone.
- 0.618 ($0.13895). A key trend reversal level. If the price reaches this zone, the entire upward structure will be broken, and the recovery can be considered invalidated.
HBAR Market Sentiment
I would describe this as cautiously bullish, where we observe an active phase of holding the high without a clearly confirmed continuation of the impulse. Price action is holding above all EMAs, RSI, after crossing 70, has corrected to 64, while the slope remains neutral.
However, I would point out that the absence of even a minimal pullback to Fibo 0.236 may indicate potential imbalanced accumulation. Such an upward movement without an intermediate reset may lead to a sharper reversal at the first liquidity failure. Thus, the market retains a bullish structure, but its further potential at this stage is not confirmed by a developingimpulse.
📈 Potential Bullish Scenario
Growth may continue if the $0.1485–$0.1490 zone holds, where EMA-20 and Fibo 0.236 converge, with a move toward a breakout of the high at $0.15477.
- Confirmation. Close above EMA-20 with RSI > 65. Breakout of $0.15477 with a candle body above and minimal upper wick. Increased volume on breakout.
- Target. The $0.158–$0.160 zone if no visible resistance appears above the high.
- Invalidation. Breakdown below EMA-50 and return under $0.1449 (Fibo 0.382). RSI below 58 + bearish candle pattern, e.g., engulfing.
📉 Potential Bearish Scenario
A correction may activate if the $0.1487 zone (Fibo 0.236) and EMA-20 are broken, especially if RSI drops below 60 and a pullback to $0.145–$0.144 begins.
- Confirmation. Close below $0.1449 (Fibo 0.382) and EMA-50/EMA-100. RSI below 58. Acceleration of decline on high volume. Breakdown of the HH/HL structure.
- Target. The $0.1418 zone (Fibo 0.5) is the first target, followed by a possible test of $0.1389 (Fibo 0.618).
- Invalidation. Holding $0.1485. RSI remains above 62. Recovery above EMA-20 and consolidation above $0.1500.
✅ Potential Entry
Remains valid while holding the $0.1487–$0.1500 zone. Entry is possible on a pullback to EMA-20 with confirmation:
- RSI remains above 62
- Candle bounces with a long lower wick or forms a bullish engulfing near $0.1490
- No signs of selling (high-volume down candles, bearish pressure)
🛑 Potential Stop
It is reasonable to place a stop below $0.1449 (Fibo 0.382) and simultaneously below EMA-50/EMA-100. This is the zone where the HH/HL structure breaks technically. Under conditions:
- Close with a candle body below EMA-100
- RSI drops below 55
- Selling accelerates on volume
- Consecutive breakdown of local HLs
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Conclusion
Watch the $0.1485–$0.1490 zone closely, where the EMA-20 and the 0.236 Fibonacci level converge – holding this area could confirm the resilience of the bullish structure.
At the same time, a breakdown below $0.1449 (Fibo 0.382) and the EMA-50 would be a strong signal of weakening momentum. RSI remains a key indicator: values above 65 support the bullish scenario, while values below 58 increase the likelihood of a reversal.
The market is currently in a consolidation phase, and the next few hours may reveal whether we’re heading for continued upside or a corrective pullback.
