Can Thursday's CPI and Jobless Claims Spark a Crypto Recovery?

• Bitcoin has dropped 12% since April 2 as tariffs continue to rattle markets, with stocks also suffering major losses and investors now looking to inflation and labor data for stability
• April 10 CPI and jobless claims will provide the latest snapshot of economic conditions before the impact of tariffs is reflected, offering clues on whether risk assets can find support
• If inflation eases and jobless claims stay steady, markets could stabilize, but any upside surprise in price pressures or labor weakness could trigger another wave of selling in crypto and stocks

The economic fallout of the Liberation Day tariffs hasn’t been kind to financial markets. Since its announcement day on April 2, Bitcoin lost almost 12% in value while the U.S. stock market has suffered one of its worst downturns in recent history.

Now more than ever, risky markets like crypto and stock are in need of positive economic data to help support the theory that assets will be able to endure the upcoming inflationary pressure and possibly find a new support zone moving forward. 

Inflation, Interest Rates, and Their Role in Market Recovery

With inflation concerns looming, investors are turning their attention to Thursday’s CPI report and jobless claims data — key indicators that could shape short-term market sentiment. Under the current market conditions, inflation and labor data are crucial indicators for investors navigating uncertainty. 

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) and jobless claims not only shape Federal Reserve policy decisions but also dictate how much investors are willing to risk on investments like cryptocurrencies and stocks.

While the readings scheduled for April 10 will report on March’s economic activity, they will still provide the most up-to-date snapshot of inflation trends and labor market conditions before the impact of the Liberation Day tariffs is reflected in future reports.

CPI Forecast and Previous Reading

• April 10 CPI (YoY) Forecast: 2.6% | Previous: 2.8%
• April 10 Core CPI (MoM) Forecast: 0.3% | Previous: 0.2%
• April 10 CPI (MoM) Forecast: 0.1% | Previous: 0.2%
• Impact: A lower CPI reading suggests inflation is cooling, which could lead to a more dovish Federal Reserve stance, potentially stabilizing risk assets like stocks and crypto. A higher-than-expected CPI would reinforce inflation concerns, increasing the likelihood of tighter monetary policy, which could pressure speculative assets.

Jobless Claims Forecast and Previous Reading

• April 10 Initial Jobless Claims Forecast: 223K | Previous: 219K
• April 10 Continuing Jobless Claims Forecast: 1,860K | Previous: 1,903K
• Impact: A higher-than-expected jobless claims number could signal labor market weakness, raising concerns about economic stability and potentially prompting stimulus measures. A lower-than-expected reading would indicate labor market resilience, which could reduce recession fears but also support a hawkish Fed stance, keeping pressure on risk assets.

Will Markets Find a New Support Zone?

With Bitcoin already down 12% since April 2, traders are watching for signs of stabilization. If inflation continues to ease and jobless claims don’t spike further, risk assets could find a much-needed relief from volatility later in the week. 

As for Bitcoin, the asset recently lost the psychological zone of $80,000 – raising concerns about further downside momentum. If buyers fail to reclaim this level, Bitcoin could see increased selling pressure, with the next major support zones sitting around $75,000 and $72,500. However, should macroeconomic data indicate easing inflation and a resilient labor market, Bitcoin may find renewed strength, allowing it to stabilize and potentially retest key resistance levels

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