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BTC On-chain Transfers Fall Below 2021 Peak, Suggesting “Nobody Wants to Sell,” Say Analysts



Table of Contents

Steady Holding Patterns in Bitcoin Indicate a Wait-and-See Approach Among Investors

  • Bitcoin’s on-chain transfer volume remains significantly lower than the 2021 peaks, pointing to a strong investor holding sentiment.
  • Wall Street’s focus on spot bitcoin ETFs and a rise in Bitcoin’s price have not translated into increased on-chain activity.
  • Analysts predict a future surge in on-chain volume and Bitcoin price, as indicators show investors are holding out for higher returns.

Bitcoin is witnessing a significant decline in on-chain transfer volume, indicating a strong holding sentiment among investors. Analysts from Blockware Solutions, a prominent research firm in the cryptocurrency sector, interpret this as a sign of investors clinging to their Bitcoin (BTC) in anticipation of future price increases.

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Decline in On-Chain Activity: A Sign of Holding Sentiment

Data from Glassnode confirms that the dollar value of the mean on-chain transfers on the Bitcoin blockchain remains significantly lower than the peak levels of 2021. This trend becomes even more pronounced when considering that Bitcoin’s price has recently reached new record highs, surpassing $70,000.

Contrary to expectations, the surge in Bitcoin’s price hasn’t translated to a proportionate increase in on-chain activity. This divergence, analysts note, reflects a strong holding sentiment prevailing in the market. The seven-day and 14-day average mean transfer volumes are currently lingering below $200,000, starkly contrasting the $1 million and higher averages during the 2021 bull market.

The analysts at Blockware Solutions point out that the average on-chain transfer volume, when denominated in USD, is considerably lower than the peaks witnessed in the 2021 bull market. This suggests a reluctance among Bitcoin holders to sell their assets, preferring to hold out for potentially higher returns.

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Wall Street’s ETF Focus and Bitcoin’s Price Rally

Interestingly, Wall Street’s increasing interest in Nasdaq-listed spot bitcoin Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) has been a key driver behind Bitcoin’s latest rally. This focus on ETFs may also contribute to the lower volumes of on-chain transactions, as trading activities concentrate on these financial products rather than direct on-chain transfers.

Beyond the transfer volume, other metrics reinforce this narrative of holding. For instance, the percentage of the Bitcoin supply last active between three and five years ago is on the rise. This is interpreted by many analysts as a sign of investors who weathered the 2022 bear market maintaining their hold on Bitcoin, with expectations of a continued price rally. Predictions among several analysts even put Bitcoin’s potential peak value well above $150,000 in the upcoming months.

Future Outlook: Predictions of Increased On-Chain Volume and Price Surges

Blockware Solutions analysts further explain that low on-chain volume symbolizes supply-side illiquidity, suggesting that most holders are not ready to part with their Bitcoin just yet. “Once we see the price start to move, that’s when on-chain volume will surge,” they stated, anticipating significant movements of older coins to exchanges for sale once the market conditions become more favorable.

As of the latest updates, Bitcoin is trading at approximately $67,700, marking a 5% increase on a 24-hour basis. The broader market, as indicated by the CoinDesk 20 Index, also shows a similar uptrend, rising by 5%. This overall market behavior underlines the growing investor confidence and the prevailing trend of holding onto crypto assets amid expectations of future gains.

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