Over and over again we have seen the Bitcoin price rise to the $10,000 region only to bounce off and get rejected.
This scenario also played out today with price surging out of a sideways move only to get stopped and reversed at the $10,000 supper strong resistance level, leaving Bitcoin traders with the question: “can bitcoin truly breakthrough the $10,000 level or are we going to see a change in trend?”
In this Bitcoin analysis, I will be answering that question to the best of my ability using technical analysis. I will also be providing you with a detailed explanation of my outlook for the market and what my next steps are whether price breaks up or heads lower in the coming days.
Important Levels and How They Affect Price.
Bitcoin is currently trading in an ascending triangle which has been forming for a few weeks now. This price pattern is a continuation pattern with the price gradually converging at the apex point.
The most important levels to watch out for are the $10,000 and $8,000 levels which serve as the support and resistance for the pattern.
I believe in the coming weeks, we can expect to see price breakout from these levels and complete the move either to the upside or downside.
My Outlook and Target Levels for The Triangle Breakout
The most important level to confirm a bullish breakout for this pattern on Bitcoin is a price close above the $10,000 region. This will mean that:
- Momentum is coming back into the market
- The bullish trend is resuming and
- We can expect the price to go higher
However, it also very important that you remember that this breakout might not occur immediately as there is a high probability that we might see a short term weakness and price pull back to the base of the ascending triangle before the uptrend resumes and the move up continues.
If the above-stated pullback occurs, the important level to watch out for is the base channel. A break below that support will only see price heading lower to the $7,000 region with my exact target at $7,893 following the target rules for trading a triangle breakout.
The likelihood of this occurring is very low (around 30%) when compared to the probability of price breaking out of the ascending triangle pattern and heading higher (more than 70%).
My target for the breakout to the upside is around $11,616. We might see the price shoot past it and just keep on going higher but that depends fully on the kind of bullish momentum we see coming into the market as the days go by.
You can also check out my fundamental analysis on Bitcoin right here: Current Events A Catalyst For Bitcoin Explosive Rise to get more insight on the long term growth of Bitcoin.