Virtual Down 18% Up 4% – Temporary Bounce or Bullish Turn? RSI is exiting oversold, but EMAs remain pressured below the $1.74 resistance. Key resistance is also located at the intersection of EMA-20 and Fibo 0.236, which may mark the very beginning of a reversal – if one is to occur. Let’s take a closer look.
Virtual Overall Price Structure
The entire crypto market experienced a decline today, and Virtual was no exception. It recorded a sharp 18% drop to $1.669 and consolidated within that range. However, it recently posted a 4% bounce to $1.724, and the RSI is emerging from oversold territory. Still, EMAs remain under pressure, and the primary resistance zones are located at the EMA-20 and Fibonacci 0.236 levels.
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Virtual EMA and RSI
- EMA-20 ($1.7405). At the moment, this is the nearest tactical barrier, which the price has already reached but has not yet held above. If the price consolidates and breaks through this level with the RSI rising above 40, it could signal a reversal. If the price fails to hold this level, especially with RSI below 40, the ongoing correction may push the price back down through it.
- EMA-50 ($1.7768). This may become a relevant level in a medium-term uptrend and could indicate a shift in momentum for the buyers. For this to happen, the price must break meaningfully away from EMA-20. However, the persistent downward angle suggests a lack of convergence.
- EMA-100 ($1.8260). Institutional participants may become active in this zone, though it is still distant. Recovery toward this area is only likely after EMA-50 is broken and RSI remains above 50. If we see consolidation below EMA-100 with RSI above 55, it may be an early sign of a new base forming.
- EMA-200 ($1.8537). This level is still far away and would need to be broken to confirm a full trend reversal.
Virtual RSI
RSI remains ambiguous and does not yet indicate bullish control. On one hand, it has exited the oversold zone, and its slope is currently positive. On the other hand, RSI remains below the neutral 50 mark, suggesting that the bounce is still reactive. Only a breakout above 40 with consolidation in the 45–50 zone, supported by an EMA breakout, could signal a potential shift in the local trend.
Virtual Fibonacci Levels
- 0.236 ($1.7405). The first critical resistance has already been tested, and buyers and sellers are struggling. This level also coincides with EMA-20, making the area a dual barrier. We are currently seeing a touch without RSI confirmation and signs of profit-taking.
- 0.382 ($1.7932). A move to this zone will only be possible if $1.74 is broken with RSI above 45. If RSI remains weak, the climb may trigger a pullback. However, holding above this level, especially with high-volume candles, may become an early signal of a recovery phase.
- 0.5 ($1.8357). This is the equilibrium level of the correction, and a breakout here could potentially mark the end of bearish inertia. Given the proximity of EMA-100, this zone could also become a trap. RSI must break above 55 – otherwise, a reversal after profit-taking is likely.
- 0.618 ($1.8783). This is the key reversal zone, which also lies just below EMA-200. A breakout here, with an RSI above 60 and a confirming candlestick signal, could clearly indicate local recovery and open a bullish rotation phase.
Virtual Market Sentiment
I would say that bearish sentiment still dominates, and the impulse from $1.6554 to $1.7243 so far appears to be a reactive bounce from recent oversold. The EMA structure continues to slope downward, and the RSI remains below 40. However, consolidation below EMA-20 with rising RSI may suggest the formation of a local equilibrium.
📈 Bullish Scenario
- Confirmation – Holding above $1.7405 (EMA-20 + Fibo 0.236), RSI > 40
- Target – $1.8357 (Fibo 0.5, EMA-100)
- Invalidation – Rejection at $1.74, RSI < 30
📉 Bearish Scenario
- Confirmation – Rejection at $1.74, bearish engulfing candle, RSI remains below 35
- Target – Return to $1.66 with a possible breakdown of the low
- Invalidation – Impulsive breakout above $1.74, RSI > 45, and rising volume
✅ Potential Entry. On an impulsive breakout above $1.7405 with an H1 close above the level and RSI > 40. A confirming signal may come from volume and a bullish candlestick pattern.
🛑 Potential Stop. Below $1.66, or triggered on a pullback under $1.74 after a false breakout, with RSI < 30 and confirmed by volume.
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Conclusion
The key level in focus is $1.7405, combined with EMA-20 and Fibo 0.236. RSI has lifted off the bottom but has not yet crossed the 40 level. Only a confirmed breakout above $1.74, supported by RSI, candlesticks, and volume, could potentially open the path to a recovery phase. Otherwise, the trend remains under seller control, and a return to $1.66 remains a likely scenario.
