TON price stabilizes at $3.41 after a massive impulse to $3.69, and the price structure continues to point to an upward trend. EMA also supports this, and TON is still holding above key Fibonacci levels. However, the recent extreme RSI levels remind us that overbought conditions are present, though now declining. Are we seeing a potential continuation of the uptrend with some deceleration or a move into a deeper correction? Let’s take a closer look.
Price Structure

So, TON is showing a max of $3.6939, which became a new high, exceeding the previous high at $3.58, and the subsequent low formed above the previous ones, so far holding around $3.41. To maintain the uptrend, it is critical not to fall below this level, which could also confirm further support.
EMA Says a Lot
After the break, TON left behind all four key EMAs, and each of them still maintains a clear upward angle, which may indicate not only buyer dominance but also the continuation of the impulse structure within the lower trend.
- However, I would watch their dynamics closely, as EMA-20 ($3.1678) still has a sharp angle and lies below the short-term candles with potential future contact, so it remains the first line of defense.
- EMA-50 ($3.0738) is also upward but with a gentler slope and may serve as significant support and a reference point for assessing the strength of the pullback.
- EMA-100 ($3.0453) and EMA-200 ($3.0542) remain below the price, and although the gap between them has widened slightly, their cluster still serves as a potential zone of reinforced support. If the price drops into this range, holding it will be a test for the entire uptrend, and a breakdown may potentially signal a trend change into mid-term consolidation.
RSI Is a Crucial Point Here
RSI in some way already predicted the slight pullback we are seeing now, as it had clearly reached its extreme value of 92.14.
However, now things look better, and it is at 72.51, which is still in the overbought zone, but with a noticeable downward angle, while the uptrend is still alive. A particularly good sign would be if it consolidates without breaking 60, potentially confirming a transition from an overheated stage to a sustainable trending move.
But if we see a break below 60, especially in combination with a move below EMA-20, this will likely become the first confirmation of the start of a corrective scenario.
Fibonacci as an Additional Potential Hint
Also, note the Fibonacci levels. After the impulse to $3.69 and a small correction to $3.45, we can see that the trend still remains within the level.
- 0.236 ($3.5) – the zone of initial profit-taking – the impulse slowed down immediately after reaching this level and rolled back.
- 0.382 ($3.4) – a key support, the price is currently holding directly near this zone, and I would watch very closely for a breach.
- 0.5 ($3.33) – this could become the base for trend continuation after a deeper correction if it happens.
- 0.618 ($3.2) – and if we move here, it may already be the beginning of a breakdown in the upward trend, which the approaching EMA-50 may also suggest.
- 0.786 ($3.1) – reaching this level would be the last retracement without breaking the entire upward trend, and note the proximity to EMA-100/200 as a key support level.
Market Sentiment
Talking generally, market sentiment remains cautiously bullish, and the upward trend is not broken even as it slows. Price went to the $3.47 level, but current support at the 0.382 Fibonacci has not been breached, RSI has lowered, and EMA remains above the retracement levels, showing a steady upward direction.
Therefore, the healthy correction, likely driven by the desire to lock in profit at $3.69, does not yet appear threatening, but signs of remaining overbought conditions and overall trend slowdown require attention.
- Bullish Scenario. If TON can hold above $3.4203 (0.382 Fibo), and RSI remains in the 70–75 range, there will be continued potential for a retest of $3.52 and a move above $3.60.
- Bearish Scenario. A break of 0.382 and a move toward $3.3358 opens the way to $3.25 and lower, and a sustained break of EMA-20 combined with RSI below 60 could potentially confirm a phase shift to mid-term correction with targets at $3.13–$3.05.
Conclusion
Right now, we are observing TON stabilizing at $3.41 after a very noticeable impulse, while still holding key support levels. Watch closely those critical levels to confirm a healthy correction phase and preservation of the uptrend, or signs of a move into a deeper correction.