What are we observing right now – either a healthy correction or a trend reversal after MKR’s sharp 18% rally? The nearly vertical move up to $1,953 was rather aggressive and pushed RSI to a notable overbought level of 84.6, while the EMA-20 slope has slightly but visibly flattened, and the price is aiming to test the 0.236 Fibonacci level.
However, the situation is not entirely negative: RSI has already dropped sharply to 55, all EMAs remain upward, and the 0.236 correction level has not been broken. Overall, this suggests that the bullish trend is still intact, though clearly slowing down and awaiting stabilization.
Overall MKR Price Structure
As you can see, we have a very strong demand zone that triggered an 18% rally – a sharp move upward with no corrections until the price reached $1,953. However, a local correction has now inevitably begun, with sellers temporarily taking over. At this point though, we are seeing a possible localization of this correction, as buyers have stepped back in and prevented a test of the 0.236 Fibonacci level.
MKR Fibonacci Zones
Speaking of Fibonacci, here’s what we’re currently seeing:
- 0.236 ($1,867) the first potential correction target, which came close but was not broken.
- 0.382 ($1,813) the more critical level that may indicate a potential shift in trend dynamics, especially since it coincides with the EMA-20 zone.
- 0.5 ($1,770) while still far below, this level should be monitored as a more definitive signal of trend momentum shift.
- 0.618 ($1,727) if we reach this level, it may potentially indicate a trend breakdown and a full reversal of control in favor of sellers, especially as it aligns with EMA-50.
In other words, as long as we remain above 0.236, the trend is intact and any decline within this range can be considered a healthy correction. However, the 0.382 zone already presents a potential pivot in momentum, and 0.5 would represent a structural break with an increased risk of sellers taking control.
MKR EMA and RSI
Now let’s talk about the EMA levels, which help clarify the structure and momentum of the current trend:
- EMA-20 ($1,813) — the price is still trading above this level, which supports the continuation of the trend. However, this will be a key level to watch over the next few hours to assess the resilience of the impulse. A candle closing below it could signal a shift from vertical growth into consolidation or a deeper correction phase.
- EMA-50 ($1,724) — the next most important zone, also reinforcing the 0.618 Fibonacci area. As long as the price stays above this level, the higher lows structure remains intact, which will be crucial for potential recovery if the trend structure shifts.
- EMA-100 ($1,676) and EMA-200 ($1,662) — both are still significantly below the current price and continue to slope upward. They coincide with the upper boundary of the demand zone, confirming it as a potential long-term support in case of a major correction or a recovery after a breakdown.
Also worth noting: RSI peaked at an extreme level of 84.61, followed by a local correction during which RSI dropped to 55. This sharp drop from overbought conditions could have been a positive sign – especially confirmed that the correction remained localized and buyers regained control. However, RSI has now risen back to around 77, which again warrants caution.
Market Sentiment and Key Points
The sentiment remains cautiously bullish, but there are clear signs of impulse slowdown and an early-stage correction phase. That said, the pullback is still holding above EMA-20 ($1,822), the RSI is above 68, and all EMAs maintain upward slopes. This may suggest the trend is intact but overheated, with the market seeking to reprice what is perceived as the local fair value.
📈 Bullish Scenario. Holding above 0.236 ($1,867) and EMA-20 ($1,822) with RSI consistently above 65 may open the door to continuation. A confirmation would be a candle close above $1,895 with the absorption of corrective bars, potentially leading to a revisit of $1,930 and a retest of the high at $1,953.
📉 Bearish Scenario. A break and candle close below 0.382 Fibonacci ($1,813) and subsequently below EMA-20 may reinforce downward pressure, potentially sending the price toward 0.5 ($1,770) and the EMA-50 area at $1,735, which marks the key medium-term support. RSI dropping below 65 would further confirm the weakening trend momentum.
✅ Potential Entry Point. $1,860–$1,870, the recovery zone between 0.236 and EMA-20 — if price forms a support candle and RSI > 68, a bounce may follow.
🛑 Potential Stop. $1,810, the break of 0.382 and EMA-20 with RSI < 65, which could indicate deepening correction. In this case, partially locking profits or cutting exposure might be prudent until a signal is confirmed at the 0.5 level.
Conclusion
So, strong demand and uptrend are still in place but are already experiencing localized corrections due to overbought. After the 18% rise, a local correction was probably inevitable and it is now important to watch key levels to confirm a potential continuation of the trend, or the end of the momentum and its reversal.
