HBAR up 5% – continuation above $0.151 or pullback to $0.148? EMAs stay bullish but are slowing, while RSI approaches the overbought zone. Let’s look closer.
Overall HBAR Price Structure
After a prolonged consolidation in the $0.144–0.147 range and a series of failed attempts to break lower, the breakout at $0.14725 was accompanied by an RSI move above 55 and a reversal of the EMA-20. While still inconclusive, this became a relatively clear signal of a potential transition into a recovery phase. A rapid update of the local high followed, with each new high accompanied by a formation of HLs and a sharp crossover between EMA-20 and EMA-50 with ascending angles.
However, the current high at $0.15163 triggered a rejection from the EMA-100. The price bounced down and quickly dropped below $0.149, forming the first pullback candle with its body under the 0.236 level. RSI simultaneously exited the overbought zone, while the angles of EMA-20 and EMA-50 began to flatten. The key question now is whether the price will hold above the critical 0.382 level, or whether that level will also be broken, which would signal a corrective phase.
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HBAR EMA and RSI
- EMA-20 ($0.14824). After an aggressive breakout to the upside, EMA-20 showed a steep angle but is now sharply flattening. The price is already testing EMA-20 from above, and a break could be the first sign of a short-term impulse failure.
- EMA-50 ($0.14817). EMA-50 has stabilized with a positive but more moderate angle. It nearly coincides with the 0.382 Fibonacci level ($0.14897), forming a key support cluster. If the price closes below EMA-50 on two consecutive candles, this may confirm the invalidation of the impulse phase.
- EMA-100 ($0.15003). This level now acts as resistance, from which the price was rejected. EMA-100 maintains a negative slope, and this rejection confirms that the medium-term recovery phase has not yet been established.
- EMA-200 ($0.15434). Still a distant target, with a clearly negative angle. Without a close above EMA-100, it is not considered a relevant near-term objective.
HBAR RSI
The indicator sharply corrected from 71.31 to 54.55. This indicates the end of the overheated phase, while still holding above the neutral zone (50), which is a positive sign. Holding RSI above 50 will be critically important for preserving the recovery structure, even in the face of the corrections currently underway.
HBAR Fibonacci Key Zones
- 0.236 ($0.14999) – a level already broken from above; a return and close back above it may become a key signal that the short-term correction following the overbought condition is ending, and that recovery may resume.
- 0.382 ($0.14897) – the current reaction level, which also coincides with EMA-50 and will be decisive for direction. Losing this level may signal a transition into a consolidation or downward phase.
- 0.5 ($0.14814) – the equilibrium level; stable holding above it is still possible, but further seller pressure increases the likelihood of a breakdown.
- 0.618 ($0.14732) – the critical level for invalidating the short-term uptrend; a break would require a full reassessment of the HL structure.
- 0.786 ($0.14515) – the deep retracement zone. If the price reaches this level without RSI recovery, it may confirm a complete breakdown of the impulse.
HBAR Market Sentiment
Overall sentiment has shifted from overheated-bullish to neutral-corrective. RSI exited the 70 zone, and EMA-100 remains unbroken. The HH/HL structure is still intact but under pressure. If the RSI holds above 50 and the price stays above 0.382, the recovery structure may persist. Otherwise, the probability of a move toward 0.5 and lower increases.
📈 Potential Bullish Scenario
- Confirmation. A return and close above $0.1499 (0.236) and EMA-100 ($0.15003), with RSI recovering above 58.
- Target. A renewed move toward $0.1534 and $0.1543 (EMA-200).
- Invalidation. A break below 0.618 ($0.1473) and RSI < 50.
📉 Potential Bearish Scenario
- Confirmation. A break below 0.382 ($0.14897) and EMA-50 ($0.14817), with RSI falling below 52.
- Target. A move toward $0.1473 and $0.1451, possibly retesting the $0.1446 zone.
- Invalidation. A renewed close above $0.150 and RSI recovery above 60.
✅ Potential Entry. $0.1489–$0.1499 (the 0.236–0.382 cluster and EMA-50). Requires RSI > 56 and candle confirmation.
🛑 Potential Stop. Below $0.1473 (0.618) and EMA-20 ($0.14824) with RSI < 50. Losing these levels would invalidate the recovery structure.
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Conclusion
The market is testing the $0.1489–$0.1499 zone, which will determine whether the impulse and HH/HL structure remain intact or if a corrective phase begins. RSI has weakened, EMA-100 is unbroken, but the structure is not yet invalidated. The focus remains on the reaction to the EMA-50 + 0.382 cluster and RSI behavior near 54.
