Crypto in Macro: This Week’s Key Market Signals

While the upcoming week may not be as eventful as others, we’ll still get a few economic reports that will help us get a sense of what’s to come in crypto and other financial markets. With a Federal Open Market Committee meeting scheduled for the end of the month, July’s prints will be of great importance for the Fed to decide its next interest rate policy. 

Monday

Not a lot of pre-scheduled market movers on this date; however, the White House’s decision to postpone the hefty tariffs it had planned for July 9 may give markets a temporary sense of relief, especially in risk-on sectors like crypto and tech stocks.

Tuesday

Tomorrow, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York will assess inflation expectations for the year ahead through its monthly Survey of Consumer Expectations. This report offers insight into how households view future price increases. Not by any means a high-volatility event, but enough to give us a glimpse into how Americans feel about inflation. 

Also, 3-year note auctions will give us one of the first glimpses of how investors are pricing Treasury risk after the Big Beautiful Bill passed the House. The U.S. will auction $58 billion in 3-year notes, and the results will offer clues about demand for short-term government debt.

Wednesday

Markets will turn their attention to the FOMC Meeting Minutes, scheduled for July 9. These minutes offer us a detailed look into the Federal Reserve’s internal discussions during the last FOMC meeting on June 17–18. While the last interest rate decision was balanced, these minutes could give us a sense of whether the Fed is leaning more toward caution or economic growth. 

Also on deck: the EIA’s weekly crude oil inventories report. Last week’s surprise 3.845 million barrel build caught markets off guard, especially as demand indicators remain soft and U.S. production holds near 13.4 million barrels per day.

We’ve also got the 10-Year Treasury Note Auction, where the U.S. Treasury will offer $39 billion in 10-year notes, giving us an important metric for how in demand the American debt is. 

Thursday

The release of Continuing Jobless Claims will give us insight into the most up-to-date state of the labor market in the United States. Last week’s non-farm payroll showed strong results, somewhat easing some recession concerns.

This makes Thursday’s Continuing Jobless Claims report especially relevant. If claims tick higher, it could suggest that the labor market is softening beneath the surface, reinforcing the idea that the Fed may need to stay patient on rate cuts. 

Friday

Not a very eventful day on Friday, outside of the British GDP (MoM) for May giving us insight into whether Britain will recover from April’s contraction or if the U.K. could be heading into a recession. 

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