MicroStrategy’s Q3 Earnings Projections May Put S&P 500 Committee on Watch

The third quarter of the year is officially closed. As Q3 comes to a close, analysts are already projecting MicroStrategy ($MSTR) earnings during the quarter. While there will be some time before the company releases its official earnings report, early estimates suggest that MicroStrategy will post around $2.9 billion in net income, driven largely by its Bitcoin holdings.

Jeff Walton, Chief Risk Officer at Strive, shared a pro forma breakdown showing an estimated $10 EPS for the quarter, bringing the trailing 12-month total to $22.80. These figures, if confirmed, would mark MicroStrategy’s second consecutive quarter of profitability — a key requirement for inclusion in the S&P 500 index.

The earnings momentum comes as Bitcoin closed Q3 at $114,390, up from $107,778 at the end of Q2. MicroStrategy added 42,906 BTC during the quarter at an average cost of $112,100, further strengthening its position as the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin.

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ETF analyst Jeffrey Seyffart responded to Walton’s post, noting that if the estimations are correct, it would place Strategy in eligible conditions to join the S&P 500 by December, pending approval from the S&P Dow Jones Indices committee. The committee reviews index changes quarterly, with the next update expected on the second Friday of December.

MicroStrategy already meets the criteria for joining the index. It’s U.S.-listed, has a market cap well above the threshold, sufficient public float, and consecutive profitable earnings reports. 

Last month, the company was passed over despite meeting the technical requirements. While we still don’t know the reason for this snub, many argue that the S&P 500 is still apprehensive about the potential volatility linked to MicroStrategy’s enormous Bitcoin treasury.

The index has been slowly catering to crypto-related companies, however. Over the year, companies like Coinbase (COIN) and Block Inc. (SQ) were able to enter the S&P 500, marking a significant shift in how traditional finance views digital asset exposure.

The official Strategy earnings report will only arrive on November 4, giving investors plenty of time to speculate whether the company will finally secure a spot in the S&P 500 index.