BTC Loses $118K – Will the Momentum Hold?

BTC loses $118K – will the momentum hold? Or does RSI below 50 and a close under all EMAs indicate a deeper correction? And how likely is a return to the $117–116K range?

Overall BTC Price Structure

We observed a notable impulsive rally from $116,961 to $118,696, but without consolidation. In particular, the attempt to break above 0.5 was met with rejection and a subsequent breakdown through 0.382 ($118,033).

A consistent close below this level may signal the invalidation of the short-term recovery structure, while the key support at 0.236 ($117,623) remains the nearest reaction zone.

In general, losing this level could accelerate the decline, and the current phase is shifting toward consolidation with a bearish bias.

BTC EMA and RSI

• EMA-20 ($117,988). The level was broken downward. The slope is negative. A return above this level may serve as confirmation of a weak recovery. For now, it remains short-term resistance.

• EMA-50 ($118,086). Not broken. The slope is neutral. Rejection from this level strengthened the downward move. It limits the recovery structure.

• EMA-100 ($118,116). Price did not reach this level. EMA-100 remains mid-term resistance. The slope is flattening.

• EMA-200 ($118,034). This level was broken downward and not reclaimed. The slope remains downward. A return above EMA-200 is needed for a short-term trend shift.

BTC RSI

Currently at 48.49, with a downward trajectory. RSI does not support upward momentum at this point, and unless it returns above 55, the structure remains weak. However, there is no sign of overheating, and RSI is fairly well synchronized with price action.

BTC Fibonacci Key Zones

• 0.236 ($117,623). This is our key support and potential boundary between consolidation and further downside. Losing this level could open the path toward $116,961 and confirm continued bearish pressure.

• 0.382 ($118,033). This level has already been broken downward, marking the first confirmation of recovery rejection. A retest without consolidation could reinforce its role as resistance and a rejection trigger.

• 0.5 ($118,365). This is the boundary of the short-term correction. A failed attempt to hold above 0.5 signals insufficient buyer strength. However, we may see a retest if RSI recovers and the price reclaims EMA-20.

• 0.618 ($118,696). The rejection zone for the upward move – remains critical resistance. However, it can only be overcome if the RSI structure changes and buyers regain initiative.

• 0.786 ($119,168). The potential upper boundary of the recovery phase. Not active in the current movement but could become a target in case of a successful return and consolidation above $118,696.

BTC Market Sentiment

I would say we are seeing strengthening bearish signals. RSI is fixed below 50, all EMAs are above the price, and the structure is broken downward. The break of 0.382 without consolidation makes $117,623 the main short-term target. So far, there are no signs of recovery – sellers continue to dominate the market.

📈 Potential Bullish Scenario

• Confirmation. Return above $118,033, RSI > 55, candle close above EMA-20

• Target. $118,365, then $118,696

• Invalidation. Rejection at 0.382 with RSI < 50, drop below $117,600

📉 Potential Bearish Scenario

• Confirmation. Hourly close below $117,623, RSI < 45

• Target. $116,961

• Invalidation. Return above $118,033 and RSI > 55

✅ Potential Entry

• Zone between $117,600 and $117,700

• Confirmation. RSI > 50, candle confirmation (bullish engulfing), volume above average

🛑 Potential Stop

• Below $117,500 and RSI < 45

• Trigger. Close below 0.236, candle confirmation with a new local low

What to Watch in the Coming Hours

The main control level is $117,623. Losing it with RSI below 45 activates the scenario of a return to $116,961. A recovery attempt is only possible if the price reclaims $118,033, consolidates above it, and RSI climbs above 55. Without that, the market remains under pressure with downside as the dominant scenario.